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\u56e0\u800c\u5bf9\u4e8eP\u503c\u6ee5\u7528\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c2016\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4f1a\uff08AmericanStatistical Association\uff0cASA\uff09\u5c31\u66fe\u53d1\u8868\u58f0\u660e\u547c\u5401\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4eec\u8981\u614e\u7528P\u503c\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u4ec5\u662f\u57fa\u4e8eP\u503c\u800c\u505a\u51fa\u79d1\u5b66\u7ed3\u8bba\u6216\u653f\u7b56\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8981\u5bf9\u5177\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u8457\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u8fd8\u5e94\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u8bd5\u9a8c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u8fdb\u884c\u5408\u7406\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u7ed3\u679c\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4e0d\u53ef\u9760\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6539\u9020P\u503c\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u9608\u503c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u589e\u52a0P\u503c\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u6027\uff0c7\u670822\u65e5\u6240\u53d1\u8868\u5728PsyArXiv\u9884\u5370\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u4e0a\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8d28\u7591P\u503c\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u751f\u7269\u533b\u5b66\u79d1\u5b66\u8bba\u6587\u7ed3\u679c\u7684p\u503c\u9608\u503c\u5e94\u8be5\u964d\u4f4e\u52300.005\uff0c\u5373P<0.005\u624d\u7b97\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u6709\u663e\u8457\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u4e14\u8be5\u8bba\u6587\u5373\u5c06\u88ab\u53d1\u8868\u5728Nature Human Behavior\u6742\u5fd7\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u800c\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5c06\u9608\u503c\u5b9a\u4e3a0.005\uff0c\u6587\u7ae0\u6307\u51fa\u8be5\u9608\u503c\u4e0e\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u56e0\u5b50\u4e3a14-26\u7684\u6548\u679c\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\uff0c\u662f\u8861\u91cf\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u771f\u5b9e\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5f3a\u529b\u8bc1\u636e\uff1b\u4e14\u8be5\u9608\u503c\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u80fd\u591f\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u5047\u9633\u6027\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6d1b\u6749\u77f6\u5357\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4ee5\u53ca\u8be5\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u5408\u8457\u8005Daniel Benjamin\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u5f53P\u503c\u4e3a0.05\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4efd\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u5230\u5e95\u6709\u591a\u5f31\u3002\u201d\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u8fd8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5904\u4e8e0.05\u52300.005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684P\u503c\u53ea\u5e94\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u63d0\u793a\u6027\u8bc1\u636e\u201d\u800c\u975e\u65e2\u5b9a\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u964d\u4f4e\u9608\u503c\u2260\u4e00\u52b3\u6c38\u9038<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u96be\u9053\u964d\u4f4eP\u503c\u9608\u503c\u540e\u5c31\u80fd\u9ad8\u6795\u65e0\u5fe7\u4e86\u4e48\uff1f\u5176\u5b9e\u4e0d\u7136\uff0c\u8377\u5170\u683c\u7f57\u5b81\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u6d4b\u91cf\u7edf\u8ba1\u7814\u7a76\u5458Casper Albers\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5982\u6b64\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u53cd\u800c\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u5047\u9634\u6027\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0cBenjamin\u53ca\u5176\u540c\u4e8b\u5efa\u8bae\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5c06\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u589e\u52a070%\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u4e0d\u4ec5\u80fd\u964d\u4f4e\u5047\u9634\u6027\u7387\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8fd8\u80fd\u663e\u8457\u964d\u4f4e\u865a\u5047\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u4f46Albers\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u53ea\u6709\u8d44\u91d1\u5145\u8db3\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u624d\u80fd\u6709\u529e\u6cd5\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd\u96f7\u4e01\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u795e\u7ecf\u5b66\u5bb6TomJohnstone\u8bf4\uff0c\u964d\u4f4ep\u503c\u9608\u503c\u8fd8\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u52a0\u5267\u201c\u62bd\u5c49\u95ee\u9898\uff08file-drawer problem\uff09\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u7edf\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u8457\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u51fa\u7248\uff0c\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u6837\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u975e\u663e\u8457\u7ed3\u679c\u5219\u9501\u5728\u62bd\u5c49\u91cc\uff0c\u522b\u4eba\u6c38\u8fdc\u65e0\u6cd5\u770b\u5230\u3002\u5bf9\u6b64\uff0cBenjamin\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u65e0\u8bbaP\u503c\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u5e94\u8be5\u516c\u4e4b\u4e8e\u4f17\u3002<\/p>\n

\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u4f0a\u5229\u8bfa\u7406\u5de5\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6Shlomo Argamon\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u6ca1\u6709\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u65e0\u8bba\u4f60\u5982\u4f55\u9009\u62e9\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u8db3\u591f\u591a\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u6765\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7ed3\u679c\u65f6\uff0c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u6b21\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5076\u7136\u5730\u7ed9\u51fa\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u663e\u8457\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n

P\u503c\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u4e4b\u9053<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u867d\u7136P\u503c\u95ee\u9898\u4e00\u76f4\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u76f8\u5173\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\u63aa\u65bd\u4f9d\u7136\u8fdb\u5c55\u7f13\u6162\u3002\u9488\u5bf9\u6b64\u60c5\u51b5\uff0cArgamon\u6307\u51fa\u73b0\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5728\u6570\u636e\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u9762\u4e0a\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u5f7b\u5e95\u7684\u53d8\u9769\u2014\u2014\u4eba\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u6539\u53d8\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u7684\u6559\u6388\u65b9\u5f0f\u3001\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u5f0f\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ed3\u679c\u5448\u73b0\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u7814\u53d1\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u6807\u51c6\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7814\u7a76\u6fc0\u52b1\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8003\u8651\u5230P\u503c<0.05\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u591a\u5047\u9633\u6027\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5fb7\u514b\u8428\u65afA&M\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6Valen Johnson\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4ece\u539f\u5b50\u78b0\u649e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u6536\u96c6\u5927\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7c92\u5b50\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e00\u76f4\u90fd\u8981\u6c42P\u503c\u8981\u4f4e\u4e8e0.0000003(\u62163\u00d710\u22127 )\u3002<\/p>\n

\u800c\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u9057\u4f20\u5b66\u5bb6\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u5168\u57fa\u56e0\u7ec4\u5173\u8054\u7814\u7a76\u6765\u5bfb\u627e\u4e0d\u540c\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u75be\u75c5\u4e0eDNA\u7a81\u53d8\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u8054\u7cfb\u65f6\uff0c\u8981\u6c42P\u503c\u8981\u5c0f\u4e8e5\u00d710\u22128\u3002<\/p>\n

\u800c\u6709\u4e9b\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5374\u5df2\u7136\u653e\u5f03\u4e86P\u503c\uff0c\u8f6c\u800c\u9752\u7750\u66f4\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5982\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u68c0\u9a8c\uff08Bayesian test\uff09\uff0c\u6b64\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f1a\u9700\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u6765\u5b9a\u4e49\u548c\u68c0\u6d4b\u4e24\u4e2a\u66ff\u4ee3\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u90fd\u6709\u4e13\u4e1a\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u884cBayesian test\u3002<\/p>\n

\u751a\u81f3\u5df2\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u5f00\u59cb\u5bf9P\u503c\u8fdb\u884c\u6253\u538b\u30022015\u5e74\uff0c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u6742\u5fd7\u00a0Basic and Applied Social Psychology (BASP)\u00a0\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u5ba3\u5e03\u5c06\u4e0d\u518d\u53d1\u8868\u542b\u6709P\u503c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bba\u6587\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5219\u8d5e\u6210\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u666e\u904d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5373\u9f13\u52b1\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5bf9\u540c\u4e00\u5957\u6570\u636e\u7528\u591a\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\u3002Johnson\u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0cP\u503c\u672c\u8eab\u5e76\u975e\u90aa\u6076\uff0c\u5b83\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5224\u65ad\u4e00\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u5426\u5f97\u5230\u8bc1\u636e\u652f\u6301\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u7528\u3002
\n\u6700\u540e\u4e3a\u5927\u5bb6\u5949\u4e0a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4f1a\uff08ASA\uff09\u53d1\u5e03\u76846\u6761P\u503c\u4f7f\u7528\u539f\u5219\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n

1. P\u503c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u793a\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5426\u76f8\u5bb9<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\u901a\u5e38\u7528\u6765\u5047\u8bbe\u4e00\u4e2a\u6548\u5e94\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5982\u4e24\u7ec4\u4e4b\u95f4\u6ca1\u6709\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u6ca1\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u6b64\u65f6P\u503c\u8d8a\u5c0f\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u4e0d\u76f8\u5bb9\u6027\uff08incompatibility\uff09\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u6000\u7591\u6216\u5426\u5b9a\u4e86\u96f6\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

2. P\u503c\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u5047\u8bf4\u4e3a\u771f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u6570\u636e\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u7531\u968f\u673a\u56e0\u7d20\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6982\u7387<\/strong><\/p>\n

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<\/section>\n

3. \u79d1\u7814\u7ed3\u8bba\u3001\u5546\u4e1a\u51b3\u5b9a\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u51edP\u662f\u5426\u5c0f\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u503c\u6765\u51b3\u5b9a<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u91cd\u5927\u51b3\u7b56\u4e0e\u7ed3\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u8bf8\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3001\u6570\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\u3001\u5916\u90e8\u8bc1\u636e\u3001\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u7531P\u503c\u51b3\u5b9aYes or No\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

4. \u6b63\u786e\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u9700\u8981\u5168\u9762\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u548c\u900f\u660e\u5ea6<\/strong><\/p>\n

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<\/section>\n

5. \u4e00\u4e2aP\u503c\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u663e\u8457\u6027\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u8868\u793a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027<\/strong><\/p>\n

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<\/section>\n

6. P\u503c\u672c\u8eab\u4e0d\u80fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5224\u65ad\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u6216\u5047\u8bf4\u7684\u826f\u597d\u91cf\u5ea6<\/strong><\/p>\n

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